The 339th Rule of Aquisition: WHAT YOU DON'T PLAY CAN'T HURT YOU
Before I found poker, I spent close to 20 years in radio; most as a program director. By far, the most important part of my job as a program director was choosing the music to play on the radio station; it makes or breaks you. On any given week, there would be over 100 new songs to choose from as potential additions to the playlist. Bad choices there meant bad ratings.
The thing is, of those 100+ songs being actively promoted each week, I was only going to choose two or three, max, for airplay. This philosophy always worked well for me, I enjoyed strong ratings throughout my career. It drove people in the record business crazy, however, as radio airplay is critical to the success of a new release. It also drove many of the people who worked for me crazy, too. People on the staff would sometimes get pretty frustrated when we didn't play songs that so many other stations around the country were playing. I would respond with two quotes: "It'll always be there next week" and:
"What you don't play can't hurt you".
Since I began playing poker, I've noticed time and again how much of my programming philosophy for radio translated to poker; discipline, focus, preparation, etc. I saw the correlation to my "What you don't play can't hurt you" motto early on as well. While there are many styles of playing the game, I initially gravitated towards "Tight/Aggressive", and "What you don't play can't hurt" you simply meant not playing non-premium hands; instead, waiting for good starting hands and betting the hell out of them when they hit.
Lately, however, that saying has assumed a new meaning. Soon after beginning to play poker, I came across a critical concept;
"In this game, your profit is in your folds"
Pretty simple, on it's face. Making bad calls costs you money, so there goes your profit. I saw that, however, as something that happened later in hands, when I'm faced with big decisions. What I didn't understand at the time, though, is that many of those hands where I found myself facing those tough decisions were hands I shouldn't have been playing in the first place.
Virtually all of the increase in profitability I've enjoyed lately has come from improving my understanding of position; playing my position more effectively, being aware of opponents' position and factoring that into their actions in the hand, and, most importantly, having the discipline not to play hands from early position. This improved understanding has caused me (for the most part) to avoid "trouble hands" from early position that seem powerful at first glance, but are, incredibly dangerous when played out of position. Hands I'd RAISE with in late position, KQ, KJ QT, even AQ can be deadly when played from early position. How? Let me give you a few very painful (and expensive) examples:
When you're faced with playing a fairly strong hand from out of position, you face a dilemma. If you raise with it, better hands will often just call you, so you have no idea what they may be holding. Here's an example that still smarts:
I'm playing 1-2 No-Limit. I bought in for 200.00, I've been playing for around three hours and I'm up to around 350.00. I'm under-the-gun, look down and see:
Ah Qd
Wow! Pretty strong hand! I raise to 12.00. It folds around to the button, who calls. The blinds fold and the flop comes:
Ac Th 6s
Perfect flop for me (I think)! I've made top pair with 2nd-best kicker, and there are no flush or open-ended straight draws possible. With 28.00 in the pot, I bet 20.00. The guy on the button just calls. Hmmmmm. This guy is a bit of a calling station, often calling preflop raises with marginal hands, and he gets stubborn if he catches any piece of the flop. He could well be in here with a weaker Ace or a Ten.
The turn comes a blank. I decide to take this damn thing down right now and bet 100.00 into a 68.00 pot. I figure the visual of my silently sliding that stack of red birds past the line will knock some sense into him. He immediately calls. So much for that plan.
The river comes a blank. Sensing I'm in trouble, I check, deciding I will fold to any bet he makes larger than 40.00. He checks as well and turns up As Ks. "Nice hand", I say, mentally kicking myself for playing that hand out of position.
Now, truth-be-told, I would probably have lost money if the situation had been reversed, with him under-the-gun with AKs and me on the button with AQ. The difference is that he would have raised preflop and I would have had to call any reasonable raise with AQ. If he followed his pattern, He would have bet about 15.00 on the flop, and I would have raised him to 45.00 or so to find out where I was in the hand. He would not have re-raised me, he's a caller, not a raiser, and, when he called, I would've probably sensed I might be in trouble. He would have checked on the turn, and so would I, I know when I'm beat. He wouldn't have bet the river, and neither would I.
Out of position, it cost me 132.00 to find out I was beat. In position, if he'd made the same preflop raise as I did, I could've gotten to showdown for around 57.00. That's about a 75.00 difference. MORE IMPORTANTLY, If I'd had enough discipline, I would've folded the damn thing before the flop because of the crummy position and not lost a single dime.
It's this simple:
WHAT YOU DON'T PLAY CAN'T HURT YOU!
"WHAT?" "Fold AQ?" "Are you nuts?"
Yeah, the truth is, it's pretty damn hard to fold hands like AQ just because you're out of position, but hands like KQ, KJ, AT, etc., should be AUTOMATIC folds from early position. Automatic. No thought whatsoever. No pain; no emotional struggle; fold, fold, fold.
"But wait a minute", some might say, "you can always limp with those hands to "find the power". If someone raises, you can then decide whether your hand is worth a call."
Sigh .... Let me give you another recent example:
I'm playing 1-2 No-Limit with my usual 200.00 buy-in. We have just opened the table and this is the first hand. I'm under the gun, look down and see:
Kh Qh
Ahhhh crap. I hate this hand in this position, I have no read on any of these players, it's the first freakin' hand, and the 213th Rule of Aquisition says: "FOLDING IS ALWAYS FREE", I'm just going to fol...................
"Call" Bad Sean says from out of nowhere before I can stop him. Damn it! Now I have to throw 2 bucks in the pot. Verbal declarations in-turn are binding, and no one's going to buy the "evil alter-ego" excuse. Two other players call, the big blind checks, and the flop comes:
Ks 7c 4s
Hey, maybe Bad Sean wasn't so wrong. No one raised, so, if there's another King in the hand, I can feel pretty good about my kicker. I bet 10.00 into a 9.00 pot; don't want to make it cheap for 65 or two spades to draw at me.
The player to my immediate right calls, everyone else folds. Hmmmmm. He was in early position, too, and didn't raise. Maybe he's on a flush draw. The turn comes:
Ks 7c 4s 9h
Good turn, it was a blank for all possible draws, but I don't like the way he's looking at that board. According to Mike Caro, when people are on a draw, they tend to study the board for a time, trying to figure out what it'll take to make their hand and if they picked up any more outs. When someone has a made hand, they tend to just glance at the board, then look away quickly. He didn't look at that turn for long, and, come to think of it, he didn't look at the board for very long on the flop; and he sure didn't think long before calling my bet on the flop.
I consider checking to just let the river fall. If it's not a spade, an 8, or a 3, I can be pretty sure no draws hit, but, I don't give free cards and, since I'm out of position in this hand, if I check, he can bet and take the initiative away from me. I'm an initiative kind of guy, so I bet 20.00 into a 29.00 pot. He quickly calls. Damn it!
The river comes a blank. There's 69.00 in the pot, so I bet 35.00. He calls and turns up:
7h 4h
He flopped two pair! Arrggghhhhh. There was a nice 67.00 lesson in position.
Those two lessons demonstrate why playing any but the absolute best hands from early position can be disasterous. If you raise, better hands than yours, and, worse yet, hands that DOMINATE you are just going to call; you'll have no idea where you stand. If you limp to "find the power", you risk letting all kinds of junk hands limp in if no one else raises. It's a lose/lose situation.
And that brings us back to the subject of this diatribe; what you don't play can't hurt you. When you consider all of the potential negatives of playing hands from early position, then factor in the fact that when you hold unpaired cards, two flops out of three are going to miss you completely, anyway, it just doesn't make sense to play any but the best hands from early position. When it comes to position and that old saying "your profit is in your folds", that "fold profit" is about having the discipline to fold those trouble hands in the first place, not after you've dumped money into the pot.
I tell my students every week that if they fold everything but AA, KK, QQ and AKs from the first three positions, they'll make more money from those positions over their lifetimes than if they play more hands. While I absolutely believe in that concept, anyone who had the discipline to actually do that would be one very boring son of a bitch, indeed. I'm just hoping I can scare them enough to plant the seed, so they'll remember that lesson when they do cheat (as everyone will) and they take the inevitable beatings.
As far as me and my play? I'm pretty much out of the KQ, KJ, AJ, AT from early position business. Give me a pair of pocket deuces, though, and I'm still going to try and sneak it in. If someone raises, I'll call if there are at least three callers (in a cash game), and if it'll cost me less than 10% of my chipstack in a tournament.
Sorry, I just don't have the discipline.
The thing is, of those 100+ songs being actively promoted each week, I was only going to choose two or three, max, for airplay. This philosophy always worked well for me, I enjoyed strong ratings throughout my career. It drove people in the record business crazy, however, as radio airplay is critical to the success of a new release. It also drove many of the people who worked for me crazy, too. People on the staff would sometimes get pretty frustrated when we didn't play songs that so many other stations around the country were playing. I would respond with two quotes: "It'll always be there next week" and:
"What you don't play can't hurt you".
Since I began playing poker, I've noticed time and again how much of my programming philosophy for radio translated to poker; discipline, focus, preparation, etc. I saw the correlation to my "What you don't play can't hurt you" motto early on as well. While there are many styles of playing the game, I initially gravitated towards "Tight/Aggressive", and "What you don't play can't hurt" you simply meant not playing non-premium hands; instead, waiting for good starting hands and betting the hell out of them when they hit.
Lately, however, that saying has assumed a new meaning. Soon after beginning to play poker, I came across a critical concept;
"In this game, your profit is in your folds"
Pretty simple, on it's face. Making bad calls costs you money, so there goes your profit. I saw that, however, as something that happened later in hands, when I'm faced with big decisions. What I didn't understand at the time, though, is that many of those hands where I found myself facing those tough decisions were hands I shouldn't have been playing in the first place.
Virtually all of the increase in profitability I've enjoyed lately has come from improving my understanding of position; playing my position more effectively, being aware of opponents' position and factoring that into their actions in the hand, and, most importantly, having the discipline not to play hands from early position. This improved understanding has caused me (for the most part) to avoid "trouble hands" from early position that seem powerful at first glance, but are, incredibly dangerous when played out of position. Hands I'd RAISE with in late position, KQ, KJ QT, even AQ can be deadly when played from early position. How? Let me give you a few very painful (and expensive) examples:
When you're faced with playing a fairly strong hand from out of position, you face a dilemma. If you raise with it, better hands will often just call you, so you have no idea what they may be holding. Here's an example that still smarts:
I'm playing 1-2 No-Limit. I bought in for 200.00, I've been playing for around three hours and I'm up to around 350.00. I'm under-the-gun, look down and see:
Ah Qd
Wow! Pretty strong hand! I raise to 12.00. It folds around to the button, who calls. The blinds fold and the flop comes:
Ac Th 6s
Perfect flop for me (I think)! I've made top pair with 2nd-best kicker, and there are no flush or open-ended straight draws possible. With 28.00 in the pot, I bet 20.00. The guy on the button just calls. Hmmmmm. This guy is a bit of a calling station, often calling preflop raises with marginal hands, and he gets stubborn if he catches any piece of the flop. He could well be in here with a weaker Ace or a Ten.
The turn comes a blank. I decide to take this damn thing down right now and bet 100.00 into a 68.00 pot. I figure the visual of my silently sliding that stack of red birds past the line will knock some sense into him. He immediately calls. So much for that plan.
The river comes a blank. Sensing I'm in trouble, I check, deciding I will fold to any bet he makes larger than 40.00. He checks as well and turns up As Ks. "Nice hand", I say, mentally kicking myself for playing that hand out of position.
Now, truth-be-told, I would probably have lost money if the situation had been reversed, with him under-the-gun with AKs and me on the button with AQ. The difference is that he would have raised preflop and I would have had to call any reasonable raise with AQ. If he followed his pattern, He would have bet about 15.00 on the flop, and I would have raised him to 45.00 or so to find out where I was in the hand. He would not have re-raised me, he's a caller, not a raiser, and, when he called, I would've probably sensed I might be in trouble. He would have checked on the turn, and so would I, I know when I'm beat. He wouldn't have bet the river, and neither would I.
Out of position, it cost me 132.00 to find out I was beat. In position, if he'd made the same preflop raise as I did, I could've gotten to showdown for around 57.00. That's about a 75.00 difference. MORE IMPORTANTLY, If I'd had enough discipline, I would've folded the damn thing before the flop because of the crummy position and not lost a single dime.
It's this simple:
WHAT YOU DON'T PLAY CAN'T HURT YOU!
"WHAT?" "Fold AQ?" "Are you nuts?"
Yeah, the truth is, it's pretty damn hard to fold hands like AQ just because you're out of position, but hands like KQ, KJ, AT, etc., should be AUTOMATIC folds from early position. Automatic. No thought whatsoever. No pain; no emotional struggle; fold, fold, fold.
"But wait a minute", some might say, "you can always limp with those hands to "find the power". If someone raises, you can then decide whether your hand is worth a call."
Sigh .... Let me give you another recent example:
I'm playing 1-2 No-Limit with my usual 200.00 buy-in. We have just opened the table and this is the first hand. I'm under the gun, look down and see:
Kh Qh
Ahhhh crap. I hate this hand in this position, I have no read on any of these players, it's the first freakin' hand, and the 213th Rule of Aquisition says: "FOLDING IS ALWAYS FREE", I'm just going to fol...................
"Call" Bad Sean says from out of nowhere before I can stop him. Damn it! Now I have to throw 2 bucks in the pot. Verbal declarations in-turn are binding, and no one's going to buy the "evil alter-ego" excuse. Two other players call, the big blind checks, and the flop comes:
Ks 7c 4s
Hey, maybe Bad Sean wasn't so wrong. No one raised, so, if there's another King in the hand, I can feel pretty good about my kicker. I bet 10.00 into a 9.00 pot; don't want to make it cheap for 65 or two spades to draw at me.
The player to my immediate right calls, everyone else folds. Hmmmmm. He was in early position, too, and didn't raise. Maybe he's on a flush draw. The turn comes:
Ks 7c 4s 9h
Good turn, it was a blank for all possible draws, but I don't like the way he's looking at that board. According to Mike Caro, when people are on a draw, they tend to study the board for a time, trying to figure out what it'll take to make their hand and if they picked up any more outs. When someone has a made hand, they tend to just glance at the board, then look away quickly. He didn't look at that turn for long, and, come to think of it, he didn't look at the board for very long on the flop; and he sure didn't think long before calling my bet on the flop.
I consider checking to just let the river fall. If it's not a spade, an 8, or a 3, I can be pretty sure no draws hit, but, I don't give free cards and, since I'm out of position in this hand, if I check, he can bet and take the initiative away from me. I'm an initiative kind of guy, so I bet 20.00 into a 29.00 pot. He quickly calls. Damn it!
The river comes a blank. There's 69.00 in the pot, so I bet 35.00. He calls and turns up:
7h 4h
He flopped two pair! Arrggghhhhh. There was a nice 67.00 lesson in position.
Those two lessons demonstrate why playing any but the absolute best hands from early position can be disasterous. If you raise, better hands than yours, and, worse yet, hands that DOMINATE you are just going to call; you'll have no idea where you stand. If you limp to "find the power", you risk letting all kinds of junk hands limp in if no one else raises. It's a lose/lose situation.
And that brings us back to the subject of this diatribe; what you don't play can't hurt you. When you consider all of the potential negatives of playing hands from early position, then factor in the fact that when you hold unpaired cards, two flops out of three are going to miss you completely, anyway, it just doesn't make sense to play any but the best hands from early position. When it comes to position and that old saying "your profit is in your folds", that "fold profit" is about having the discipline to fold those trouble hands in the first place, not after you've dumped money into the pot.
I tell my students every week that if they fold everything but AA, KK, QQ and AKs from the first three positions, they'll make more money from those positions over their lifetimes than if they play more hands. While I absolutely believe in that concept, anyone who had the discipline to actually do that would be one very boring son of a bitch, indeed. I'm just hoping I can scare them enough to plant the seed, so they'll remember that lesson when they do cheat (as everyone will) and they take the inevitable beatings.
As far as me and my play? I'm pretty much out of the KQ, KJ, AJ, AT from early position business. Give me a pair of pocket deuces, though, and I'm still going to try and sneak it in. If someone raises, I'll call if there are at least three callers (in a cash game), and if it'll cost me less than 10% of my chipstack in a tournament.
Sorry, I just don't have the discipline.
posted by Sean at 10:02 PM
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